Yes, it was ugly, and it was far closer than it should have been, considering who didn’t play. Yes, at times the Ravens looked like a team that has no business having playoff aspirations. And yet, there the Ravens sit at 6-5, in the thick of the Wild Card chase.
But after what I saw last night, just don’t expect them to do it again on December 27th at Heinz Field.
Still, with five games to play, there is at least a reasonable chance that the Ravens will qualify for the postseason, and isn’t that why we play the games? And remember, every year a team sneaks into the playoffs and makes a surprising run. Why not the Ravens?
So, even though we’ve had to endure (fill in the blank with: Mark Clayton’s drop, Ray Lewis’ penalty, Steve Hauschka’s miss, Joe Flacco’s interception), the dream lives on.
Here’s how the dream breaks out now:
The NY Jets, Miami, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee and Denver are all still mathematically alive. The Titans, Jets, Dolphins and Texans already have six losses and thus must finish 5-0 to have a chance of making the playoffs. I don’t see any of those teams having a 5-0 finish in them, and so can be safely dismissed.
That leaves Jacksonville at 6-5 and facing games against Houston, Miami, Indianapolis and New England. I think there’s at least one loss in there somewhere, probably two. Look for them to finish no better than 10-6, but more likely 9-7.
Denver, at 7-4, still must travel to Kansas City, Indianapolis and Philadelphia. They also will probably finish no better than 10-6 and the Ravens, having beaten them, will have the first tiebreaker.
The 6-5 Steelers, locker room dissension notwithstanding, are still in the best position of all, with few real difficult games ahead. The only challenges for Pittsburgh are at home to Green Bay and Baltimore and at Miami. Expect the Steelers to finish at least 10-6, maybe 11-5. (All of this presumes Ben Roethlisberger returns to the lineup Sunday and finishes the year.)
The Ravens, another 6-5 team, should be able to win against Chicago, Detroit and Oakland. If they can steal one at 7-4 Green Bay on Monday night, 10-6 becomes very possible. If they lose, the game at Pittsburgh becomes a must-win, which, after watching Dennis Dixon move the ball effectively last night, seems like a bridge too far. If the Ravens lose both games, they’ll need lots of help to make the playoffs, and are likely left on the outside looking in.
But again, if they beat the Packers Monday Night, the Ravens can lose to Pittsburgh on the 27th and probably still make the playoffs. While taking one from Green Bay at Lambeau on national television seems, at first glance, to be an impossible task, it’s not. Aaron Rodgers is inconsistent, and the Packers have really only beaten one quality team this season (Dallas at home); the rest of their schedule has been filled up with the likes of Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland and St. Louis. In any event, this challenge seems to me to be far simpler than being in a must-win situation in Pittsburgh. Bring on the Packers, baby.
(This is going to be a long, long week.)